Looking Ahead to 2024

March 13, 2024

As we approach year-end, the financial news will focus on "what investors should expect in the year ahead".  All of the major financial firms will post their S&P 500 price targets for the end of 2024, which is always entertaining to say the least!  Let's revisit the price targets the big boys posted headed into this year:

A Swing & A Miss:

As of today, the S&P currently sits at 4,740.  With only 13 days left in the year, it's safe to say that the experts have missed the mark. Let's remember, these firms employ the brightest financial minds in the world, including Ivy league graduates and decorated economists.  

The point is no one can tell you what the market will do over the next 12 months, so don't waste you energy getting caught up in theses clickbait articles!

My Market Predictions For 2024:

  • I predict that the market will drop by 5% or more on 3 or 4 different occasions during the upcoming year.  
  • One of these instances will result in a drop of 10%+
  • The financial media will make you wonder if the apocalypse is truly upon us, yet the sun will continue to rise.

A Strong Q4:

Stocks and bonds have both rallied over the past few months as interest rates have dipped.  So far, stocks are up more than 10% for the quarter, and bonds have grown by more than 6% as you'll see below:

An amazing Christmas surprise that very few expected...but we did!  In fact, we wrote about twice in the last two months...

Surviving Seasonality (Oct 1, 2023):

What we said:

Interest Rate Risk (Nov 2, 2023)

What we said:

Hope For The Future: ....The last 3 months have been sloppy to say the least, and we had a new potential war pop up on the radar.  So how do things improve from here?  First off, November has been the best month for stocks since 1950, so we're entering a strong season.  Beyond that,  here are what I see as potential growth catalysts for the future:

  1. Interest Rates: I spoke at length above regarding the challenges created by rising rates. But what if they stop climbing?  What if they even begin to decline?  What if mortgage rates, which are currently around 8%, tick down to 6.5%?    I think this would benefit stocks, bonds, and the economy.
  2. Inflation: The CPI has steadily ticked down from last summer, which is evidence that perhaps rates no longer need to climb.  A confident grasp on inflation will improve rates, which should improve our investment portfolios.          

About Our Blog: The primary purpose of our blog is to reiterate to clients how we make important investment decisions.  Instead of being flashy or sexy, we prefer boring and vanilla.  We make evidence based decisions using market history as our guide, and it tends to work very well over the long haul.  No "gut feelings" or "market predictions"....    

Client Survey Results

Investors are cautiously optimistic for the year ahead:

Elite Wealth Initiatives for 2024:

This year, our focus was retirement planning, which will continue into the new year.  We launched and refined our One Page Plan, which has streamlined the way we deliver advice.  More structure, personalization, and focus on the things that matter to you as an investor.  To start your One Page Plan, CLICK HERE.  

  1. Risk Profile Updates: The financial landscape has changed, and I'm sure your goals and objectives have as well.  You can expect to see a requests to update your risk profile during the Q1.  This is an important compliance obligation for advisors like myself as well.    
  2. Elite Wealth Client Portal: The survey indicated that only 37% of respondents are using the Elite Wealth Client Portal.  It's a valuable tool for document storage/sharing, communication, and overall financial wellbeing.  We will share some tips and helpful hints for navigating your portal.  To access the Client Portal, CLICK HERE.    
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